Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell'Informazione     
Pardini C., Anselmo L. The uncontrolled reentry of Progress-M 27M. In: IAASS-2016 - 8th IAASS International Space Safety Conference "Safety First, Safety for All" (Melbourne, Florida, USA, 18-20 May 2016). Proceedings, pp. 540 - 548. International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS), 2016.
Uncontrolled reentries of sizable space objects are becoming of growing concern due to the increase of space activities around the Earth and population on the ground. After providing an updated review of various aspects of the problem, this paper presents the exemplar case of Progress-M 27M, whose control was lost immediately after launch, on April 28, 2015, and which reentered on May 8. As in similar previous occurrences, the Space Flight Dynamics Laboratory of ISTI/CNR, in Pisa, was in charge of reentry predictions for the Italian civil protection authorities and space agency. The first prediction was issued in the morning of April 30, in the morning of May 7 the only potentially risky reentry trajectory over central Italy was identified, and in the afternoon of May 7, about 12 hours before the actual reentry, any residual risk for Europe and Italy was finally excluded.
Subject Satellite reentry predictions
Civil protection applications
Ground safety
Risk windows definition
Progress-M 27M
70F15 Celestial mechanics

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